And the winners will be ...

Predictions go hand-in-hand with elections.
Here's what my crystal ball is showing for the mayor races across York Region.
It will be landslide victories for Tony Van Bynen in Newmarket, Jamie Young in East Gwillimbury, Rob Grossi in Georgina, Frank Scarpitti in Markham and David Barrow in Richmond Hill.
In Aurora, Mayor Tim Jones will hold on. Councillors Nigel Kean and Phyllis Morris will split the vote, pushing Jones up the middle.
In King Township, while incumbent Mayor Margaret Black will come out the winner, she'll know she was in a race with Steven Pellegrini.
In Whitchurch-Stouffville, former mayor Wayne Emmerson will edge out Mayor Sue Sherban. Make no mistake, every vote will be count in this four-way race.
A cliffhanger is shaping up in Vaughan between Michael Di Biase and Linda Jackson. In the end, it will be Mayor Jackson.
Now, it's your turn.

Comments

[Kathy Constable]

Thank goodness, Mayor Jones, was there really any other choice???

[Mookie]

I like your picks. You are right on with Mayor Jones....is there really anyone else?????

[Richard Johnson]

Give me a break. Mayor Jones is the best we can do ? I guess some people have come to accept power, water and transportation shortages and a Mayor that would rather conduct his business behind closed doors, except of course when cutting ribbons, which is clearly a high priority in Aurora.

If we can't do better, then urban sprawl is going to continue full throttle and accountability and transparency in government will have to wait at least another four years.

I have had the unfortunate experience of trying to work with the past council to actually try to resolve important issues, despite a demonstration of almost complete apathy and a mistreatment of the facts on the part of the Mayor and at least a few others. We can and must do better or we will have to change our town motto from "A Character Community" to "A Community of Characters".

[Richard Johnson]

As of October 31...

My prediction is that Phyllis Morris will win the Mayor's race by a nose. I have talked to a lot of people and while I can see the risk of a split vote, there is a very good chance that the overwhelming desire for change will make the difference none the less.

Here is my logic:

In the 2003 election Phyllis Morris got 6,833 votes (74% of ballots cast) for Council and Nigel Kean got a respectable showing of 5,757 votes (63% of ballots cast). Mayor Jones received 5,592 votes for Mayor (61% of ballots cast) against a relatively unknown and inexperienced competitor, Homer Farsad, who received 3,012 votes (33% of ballots cast). So you can assume that there is going to be at least a minimum of 5,000 people that will vote of someone other than Mr. Jones given the strength and ability of the two people running against Mr. Jones this time around.

Furthermore, when one looks at the support base of Mr. Jones it has fallen consistently over the past three elections and based on the performance of the last council and the Mayor's alienation of a large number of residents along the hydro corridor, as well as the mishandling of other issues, Mr. Jones' support will continue to fall at a similar rate of erosion, but that said, this is going to be a photo finish.

As a result of population growth and more interest in this mayoral race, at least 9,500 people will cast a vote for Mayor. Mr. Jones' support will fall to at least 3,700 votes (39% of ballots cast) which will leave 5,900 votes (approximately 61% of the ballots cast) for his opponents to split. At the end of the day the race will be determined by the challenger's split, but given her very strong base of support I expect that Phyllis will win 3,900 votes (41% of ballots cast) and Nigel will win 1,900 votes (20% of ballots cast).

I also predict that we will have seven new councillors.