NFL: Alternative logic

The National Football League, which could easily stand for the No Freakin’
Logic football program in the opinion of many poolsters, is an odd bird.
It’s true what they say about any given Sunday, the truest testament to
parity an unbalanced and weighted schedule can provide in order to create
fan, er, betting interest.
Sometimes you must wonder, though, about the absurd nature in which games
unfold. 
Of all the sports, the NFL is the sport where coaches are well-established
as ultra control freaks, spending days on end holed up in their offices,
looking over game films to acquire the slightest edge on an opponent.
Does it not seem unfair, then, that so many games are determined by
sloppiness, bungling and sheer luck, good or bad? The human element,
including fumbling hands, bumbling blockers and plain old boneheaded play
calls — how does a coach account for all that?
How does a poolie possibly forsee it all?
There is no logic to it all that I can detect.
Of course, I’m stinkin’ it up in my NFL pool, so my question is simple —
given the illogical nature of outcomes, what kind of mind can actually sniff
this stuff out?